⚽ Soccer Easy

Example 1: Palmeiras vs Flamengo

Scenario: Odds for Palmeiras: 2.20 (implied probability: 45.5%)
Your analysis indicates Palmeiras has a 55% chance of winning.

Data: p = 0.55, q = 0.45, b = 1.20
Full Kelly: f* = (0.55 × 1.20 - 0.45) / 1.20 = 0.175 = 17.5%
Kelly 25%: 4.4% of bankroll
Expected Value: (0.55 × 2.20 - 1) × 100 = 21%
Recommended bet: $44 for every $1000 bankroll (Kelly 25%)
🎾 Tennis Medium

Example 2: Djokovic vs Underdog

Scenario: Odds for the underdog: 4.00 (implied probability: 25%)
Your analysis indicates the underdog has a 30% chance of winning.

Data: p = 0.30, q = 0.70, b = 3.00
Full Kelly: f* = (0.30 × 3.00 - 0.70) / 3.00 = 0.067 = 6.7%
Kelly 25%: 1.7% of bankroll
Expected Value: (0.30 × 4.00 - 1) × 100 = 20%
Recommended bet: $17 for every $1000 bankroll (Kelly 25%)
🏀 Basketball Medium

Example 3: NBA Favorite

Scenario: Odds for the favorite: 1.50 (implied probability: 66.7%)
Your analysis indicates the favorite has a 75% chance of winning.

Data: p = 0.75, q = 0.25, b = 0.50
Full Kelly: f* = (0.75 × 0.50 - 0.25) / 0.50 = 0.25 = 25%
Kelly 25%: 6.25% of bankroll
Expected Value: (0.75 × 1.50 - 1) × 100 = 12.5%
Recommended bet: $62.50 for every $1000 bankroll (Kelly 25%)
Warning: Full Kelly suggests 25% ($250), which is very risky!
⚽ Soccer Error Example

Example 4: When NOT to Bet

Scenario: Odds for Team A: 2.00 (implied probability: 50%)
Your analysis indicates Team A has a 50% chance of winning (no edge).

Data: p = 0.50, q = 0.50, b = 1.00
Full Kelly: f* = (0.50 × 1.00 - 0.50) / 1.00 = 0%
Expected Value: (0.50 × 2.00 - 1) × 100 = 0%
Decision: DO NOT BET - No mathematical edge

📈 Simulation: Bankroll Growth with Kelly

Final Bankroll (Kelly 25%): $ 0.00
Final Bankroll (Fixed 5%): $ 0.00
Kelly Growth: 0%
Fixed Growth: 0%
* Simulation based on controlled randomness

📊 Table: Kelly by Sport

SportTypical EdgeSuggested Kelly 25%Example
⚽ Soccer5-15%1-4% of bankroll$1000 Bankroll → $10-40
🎾 Tennis10-20%2-5% of bankroll$1000 Bankroll → $20-50
🏀 Basketball5-10%1-3% of bankroll$1000 Bankroll → $10-30
🏈 Football3-8%0.5-2% of bankroll$1000 Bankroll → $5-20
🥊 Boxing/MMA10-25%2-6% of bankroll$1000 Bankroll → $20-60

💡 Tips for Using the Examples

  • Start small: Use Kelly 25% or even 10% in the beginning
  • Keep records: Log all your bets and results
  • Be consistent: Don't change the Kelly factor mid-sequence
  • Review your hits: Analyze if your probability estimates are correct
  • Adapt to your sport: Each sport has different characteristics
For Educational Purposes Only: The examples are illustrative. Actual results may vary significantly.